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The silver market has been supported by risk aversion and the negative interest rate environment, with an increase of more than %, basically recovering from last year's decline. The sharp fall in the global stock market at the beginning of the year has shown that there are greater risks in the global financial market, and frequent geopolitical and terrorist events, such as the Syrian war, the Saudi-Iran conflict, the Turkish military coup, the North Korean issue and various terrorist attacks, have seriously affected market sentiment. Gold finds upside support. The UK's Brexit referendum on mid-month shocked the market. The UK actually found a unique way to leave the EU, and the Eurozone showed signs of disintegration. This was an important blow to global economic integration.
The black swan is about to fly in the fourth quarter, a golden opportunity to buy silver prices!
Spot Gold and Silver
The uncertainty caused by numerous global economic and financial market instability and geopolitical turbulence experienced in 2017 is the market theme under the new normal of macroeconomic environment. This uncertainty will still remain in the future. Existence, especially the campaign differences between Hillary Clinton and Trump in the US election, instability on the Korean peninsula, and Italian constitutional amendments, are expected to continue to stimulate market nerves.
There is only about a week left until the voting day for the US election on October 1, but there are reports in the United States that the FBI will once again investigate the email scandal involving presidential candidate Hillary. This has made the previous polls and Hillary Clinton, who had a relatively strong lead in the general election debate, was embarrassed. Since Hillary represents the continuity of U.S. political and economic policies, if she is elected president, it will mean a good transition of power in the United States, which will cause less market risks, while Trump has fallen into crazy hypotheticalism, which is more It is a transformation from a populist and radical governance style, which can be seen from his speech style and attitude towards the Federal Reserve.
Financial markets need volatility, but they don’t need unpredictable black swans. However, the U.S. election may be incubating a black swan, and this risk has exceeded the Fed’s two remaining interest rate meetings this year and the interest rate hike. Effects of Hype.
Secondly, the political instability on the Korean Peninsula has caused the black swan to flap its wings and take off.
On the Korean peninsula, in addition to the mischief of North Korea, which tests missiles from time to time, causing market nervousness, South Korea is also in constant trouble this year: Hanjin Shipping, South Korea's largest shipping company, declared bankruptcy. This is a microcosm of the global economic winter in recent years and accounted for Samsung, one-fifth of South Korea’s giant companies, was bombarded by its important mobile phone brand Samsung. In the past two days, South Korean President Park Geun-hye was deeply involved in the scandal of cronies interfering in government. South Korean prosecutors inspected the presidential palace, and a large number of people appeared in the country. Demonstrations in the streets call for Park Geun-hye to step down. The political and economic instability on the peninsula is spreading to the surrounding areas, and market sentiment has been stimulated.
The influence of gray swan cannot be ignored.
The Brexit referendum shocked investors in global markets, and the aftershocks are still lingering. Soon, the market will usher in another referendum: Italy will hold a constitutional referendum on October 1. Although this referendum is different from the Brexit referendum and the impact may not be widespread, it will have a significant impact on Italy's political situation, because if the referendum is not passed, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi may resign and Italy will hold another early election. For the market, Italy, which is struggling in the quagmire of the European debt crisis, may once again become a hot spot for market speculation and push up global tensions.
Basically, there are many risk events in the fourth quarter, and uncertainty will last until the end of the year, which is good for gold and silver denominated in non-US currencies. Technically, the gold price is in a rebound recovery pattern after the sharp drop at the beginning of the month. The US dollar/ounce is a favorable allocation area for long-term investors. If the gold price per ounce can stabilize in the US dollar to US dollar area, it is expected to return to above the Qiansan mark within the year.
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