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In early trading today, the two markets opened lower and moved higher, with heavyweight stocks diverging, coal finance rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching the
mark. Looking at the market, the coal, Internet brokerage and construction sectors were among the top gainers, while non-ferrous metals, petroleum, steel and other sectors led the decline.
Industry analysts said that the environment is still neutral, periodic pulses should not be chased higher, and the configuration is stable.
After the end of the month, we revised the market view from optimistic to neutral. The main factors that prompted the change in view were changes in liquidity and the assessment of growth expectations.
The Politburo meeting at the end of the month proposed suppressing asset price bubbles. As a result, expectations of monetary policy easing have been disappointed. Liquidity has not changed much before the economy declines again. Its importance to the market has declined. The assessment of growth will once again become the main contradiction of the market. From a data point of view,
monthly economic data
are still good. At present, high-frequency
real estate
sales and coal consumption have declined somewhat last month. It is believed that the current round of economic stabilization is at present. the final stage. The assessment from the policy perspective is that it is neutral, the importance of stabilizing growth has declined, and deleveraging and risk prevention have become the focus of policies in the fourth quarter.
The end-of-year market trend initiated by mainstream institutions is not complicated. Those who like to do medium and short-term should pay close attention to the trends of institutions and pay attention to policy signals. For example, the issuance of new shares announced last week has significantly accelerated, coupled with the supervision of the very active Evergrande account, and the sharp fluctuations in the futures market, all indicate that the market rise will not be smooth sailing, and there must be a clear direction in the short and mid-term. If you want to participate in the speculation of large-cap stocks in the short-term, in the mid-term, you should choose small-cap and high-performance stocks. It is a wise choice to use a combination to deal with possible fluctuations in the market.
With the clarity of the U.S. election,
a major uncertainty factor faced by stocks in the near future has been eliminated, which has a significant effect on stabilizing market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index responded to the election result with a
Z-shaped intraday trend last week, which turned the negative news into a positive sign. Of course, the core of the market's strong performance lies in the fact that stocks have always had their own operating logic, which is more guided by changes in the domestic economy and policies. Judging from a series of economic data released in the past two weeks, my country's economic performance has improved, and economic structural adjustment has been progressing smoothly, creating good fundamental support for the stock market. . Coupled with the continuous release of policy dividends such as supply-side reform and the expectation of the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong in January, structural performance opportunities have also provided internal driving force for the market to strengthen.
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