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Recently, the RMB seems to have fallen into a crazy mode. In less than two hours after the opening of trading, the onshore RMB fell beyond the point, breaking the...,... mark in a row, hitting a new low in the past eight years. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index has been rising in recent days. Yesterday, the U.S. dollar index broke through the mark and hit its highest level since last month. The U.S. dollar index is currently trading at .00 points. Over the past few months, the RMB has broken through the hourly mark at a frightening speed. The spot exchange rate challenged the spot rate for the first time on the year, month, and a half, and finally broke through. The spot exchange rate began to challenge the spot rate on the year, month, and a half. The subsequent small pass can only be described as lightning speed.
So what will happen when the RMB depreciates sharply in the past?
Many investors believe that the biggest uncertainty in China's stock market this year is the RMB exchange rate. The relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the rise and fall of the stock market has suddenly become closer.
In the first half of the year, the RMB exchange rate temporarily chose to remain stable against the U.S. dollar under exchange rate pressure brought about by the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The signs of exchange rate stabilization at this stage are very obvious. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is mainly locked at . direct correlation.
Shanghai Composite Index and Offshore RMB Exchange Rate
Since the stock market crash in 2009, the RMB exchange rate has experienced the second largest depreciation. The many resonances between the exchange rate and the stock market that are difficult to ignore have forced stock investors to re-evaluate the impact of the exchange rate. The close connection between the RMB exchange rate and the stock market has become a new thing. From the comparison of the performance of these four stock markets, there may be the following rules:
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Continuous depreciation of the RMB or sudden sharp depreciation is bad for stocks
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There is a lag in the reaction of stocks to the depreciation of the RMB
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The lag time of the impact is not fixed, but needs to be superimposed on the comprehensive prediction and judgment of the market atmosphere of the stock itself.
Therefore, the depreciation of the RMB is a negative for stocks, which has only become more obvious since the exchange reform in March. However, the depreciation of the RMB is only one factor affecting the trend of stocks and cannot completely determine the overall performance of the stock market. The trend of the stock market depends more on national macroeconomics, policies, interest rates and many other factors.
The RMB has depreciated significantly recently. From an income perspective, companies with a relatively high proportion of overseas business income, such as trade and service export-oriented enterprises, will be positively affected by the depreciation of the RMB. On the one hand, the depreciation of the RMB will help companies reduce costs and improve product competitiveness. On the other hand, it will help export-oriented companies obtain exchange gains. Regal Bar (WeChat public account d) recommends that investors should pay appropriate attention to concept stocks related to RMB depreciation.
Lianfa Co., Ltd., Luthai, Vosges Co., Ltd., Huafu Colored Textile Co., Ltd., CAMCE International, Huafang Co., Ltd., Fuanna, Blum Oriental, Superstar Technology, Luolai Life, Jialinjie.
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