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Only when oil demand stops continuing to grow. Even though oil consumption has been rising steadily for decades, Birol's comments strengthened the debate over when oil consumption will continue to decline, a change known as peak oil demand.
Early this month, Simon Henry, executive director and chief financial officer of Dutch Shell, said that market demand for oil may encounter a bottleneck of stagnant growth in the next two decades, or even sooner in the past five years. The remarks caused a huge stir.
The era of fossil fuels is far from over
On Wednesday, Birol said that the era of fossil fuels appears to be far from over. Despite growing investment in renewable energy, demand for oil will continue to rise for longer as there are currently few alternatives to oil for road freight, aviation and petrochemicals. Even improvements in the efficiency of gasoline engines and a surge in the number of electric vehicles will not be enough to curb rising oil demand. At the same time, it publishes an annual report and predicts changes in global energy supply and demand by the end of the year.
Oil companies are beginning to face the prospect that consumer demand for their core products may stop growing due to climate policies and efficiency improvements. In this regard, Henry has said that we have always believed that oil demand growth will peak earlier than supply, so the stagnation of oil demand growth will occur in the next 20 to 20 years, and this trend will gradually be driven by high efficiency and oil alternatives. .
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, has begun to prepare for a new era in which oil is no longer the main fuel. Saudi Arabia is planning an initial public offering of part of its shares in state-owned oil company Aramco and will use the funds to invest in developing a non-oil-dependent economy.
When oil demand will peak is still unknown
However, Saudi Arabia has not assessed the specific time when oil demand will peak. Huitong.com cited published data showing that if a more stringent approach to global climate change is adopted, oil demand growth may stagnate by the end of the year, but this will not happen until Trump is elected. The United States
After the Presidency, it seems increasingly difficult to achieve. Trump has called global climate change a disaster and pledged to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. This month, government officials from dozens of countries gathered in Morocco to celebrate the formal entry into force of the Paris Agreement.
Huitong.com quoted Birol as saying that this effort may not be enough to quickly reduce crude oil consumption. The current share of global energy derived from fossil fuels will only fall to 2020, even if all provisions of the Paris Agreement are implemented.
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