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< br />Fundamental Analysis:
At the beginning of the Asian market on Monday (Monday), U.S. crude oil opened slightly higher and is currently trading above USD/barrel. Boosted by the weakness of the U.S. dollar index and market risk sentiment, oil prices enjoyed four consecutive positive days last week, but the overall trend of oil prices stabilized. The market will receive a major monthly report this week, and oil prices are expected to be boosted.
The latest data released by Baker Hughes, an international oilfield technical services company, shows that the number of oilfield drilling rigs operating in the United States last week reached 10,000, the highest number in a week since January. The market is worried that increased U.S. crude oil production may partially offset the efforts of OPEC and other oil-producing countries to reduce production.
Ji Zilin believes that as the world's top three oil-producing countries, the United States is not a country that signed the production reduction agreement. The United States also did not participate in the previous series of meetings between OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries on oil production. In recent years, U.S. shale oil has developed vigorously, and its oil output has experienced a leap in volume. Although the international oil market experienced a cliff-like decline in 2018, which inhibited the development of shale oil, the international oil market returned to above $50 in the second half of the year. , U.S. shale oil regained momentum and made a strong recovery. From the changes in the number of active oil rigs in the United States, we found that in the second half of the year, the number of active oil rigs in the United States stopped falling and rebounded, and even increased for ten consecutive weeks from January to April.
At present, the production cuts of oil-producing countries such as C and Russia have brought the supply and demand side of the international oil market closer to balance and promoted the recovery of the oil market. However, the rebound in international oil prices will promote U.S. shale oil production, and high U.S. oil production and inventories will in turn suppress international oil prices. Currently, the international oil market has entered a stalemate, and it is expected that international oil prices will be unlikely to fluctuate significantly for a long time.
This week the market will usher in a super heavy event, the International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its monthly report! This will be a monthly report released after C reaches an agreement to reduce production, and is expected to have a major impact on the market.
If this monthly report shows a decrease in inventories, oil prices are expected to be boosted to the mark. On the contrary, if it shows an increase in inventories, oil prices may be suppressed again.
Technical analysis of spot crude oil:
From the four-hour line, the line runs above the Bollinger Middle Track, the C red energy column shrinks, and the third line shows signs of turning upward. This week, Ji Zilin recommends that crude oil operations be low and long. Mainly, crude oil continues to fluctuate between small ranges this week. The intra-week shock trend is more upward. Due to the bullish trend, the possibility of crude oil prices breaking through the range upward in the future is relatively high. You can wait and see patiently at resistance, support, and wait for oil prices to break through the range. No matter which direction it breaks through, because the shock has been around for a long time, the potential momentum after the breakthrough is very large.
Spot crude oil operation strategy
,.. Long nearby, stop loss., target.
,.. Short nearby, stop loss., target.
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