ZW7-40.5/1250-25KA

The 13th Five-Year Plan will be an important promotion period for energy system and price reform. Therefore, one of the focuses of energy strategic planning is the consistency between energy system and price reform and strategic planning. Improving energy efficiency is the eternal goal of energy development. In the past process of rapid economic development, energy strategies focused on meeting energy demand, and it was difficult to take energy efficiency into consideration. Under the new normal of economic development, the pressure to meet energy demand has weakened. The future development of the energy industry will focus on improving efficiency. However, improving efficiency of enterprises requires the support of macro-system reform. Energy reform is urgent. The current contradictions in supply and demand in the energy industry, as well as the severe environmental pollution we face, all ultimately involve the energy system and price. Although there is a consensus on energy reform, there are conditions for smooth reform, mainly the impact of energy reform on social economy and public acceptance. Therefore, a better time for reform should be when energy supply and demand are relatively loose and energy prices are low and can be expected to remain relatively stable and low for some time to come. In recent years, domestic and foreign energy supply and demand conditions and supply patterns have undergone tremendous changes, which are very conducive to China's energy reform. The 13th Five-Year Energy Strategic Plan needs to reflect and promote energy reform.
Although great efforts have been made in energy conservation and emission reduction, energy conservation is still the most important link in energy development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The second focus of strategic planning is to use energy conservation and energy demand-side management as an effective component to balance energy demand. . In the past, energy strategic planning generally determined the energy demand for a certain period first, and then determined energy investment and supply based on the production and reserve status of energy resources. Of course, energy strategic planning in the past also involved energy conservation and emission reduction, but the constraints on energy conservation and emission reduction targeting energy intensity and carbon intensity indicators were relatively weak. Therefore, in the 13th Five-Year Energy Strategic Plan under the background of energy revolution, the basic formula of energy demand should be energy demand, energy saving + energy supply. Although the formula seems simple, it has strong policy implications. When the energy demand is established and the amount of funds is limited, how much energy supply and energy saving should be guaranteed depends on investment. In other words, funds can be invested in energy production, including imports, or in energy conservation. Then, there are various policy combinations to choose from. If more funds are invested in energy conservation, energy conservation will increase, but the investment in energy production will decrease accordingly. Therefore, the government can minimize the cost of meeting energy demand by selecting energy supply inputs and energy conservation inputs. How government investment and public policies guide the flow of funds is crucial to the choice of energy input.
In the past energy strategic planning, energy conservation and emission reduction were mainly constrained through relative indicators such as energy intensity and carbon intensity. The third focus of the 13th Five-Year Energy Strategic Plan is to harden energy conservation and emission reduction targets through total energy consumption and total environmental emissions. Among the emission indicators, what can really affect the energy structure is carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, in addition to the goals related to energy conservation, emission reduction, and haze control, it is also necessary to control the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions as a constraint to meet energy demand, that is, to control the energy in the energy demand formula. Supply volume plus carbon dioxide emission constraints are set to set reasonable absolute carbon dioxide emission indicators. A specific carbon dioxide constraint will have a corresponding energy structure. Generally speaking, the tighter the carbon dioxide emission constraints, the lower the proportion of coal in the primary energy consumption structure, and the higher the proportion of clean energy such as natural gas, nuclear wind and solar energy. It can be predicted that as carbon dioxide emission constraints are tightened and the total emissions are reduced, the energy structure will change accordingly, energy costs will increase to varying degrees, and macroeconomic variables such as employment will be affected to varying degrees. Unit energy consumption of sulfur dioxide Nitrogen oxide and solid waste emissions will also decrease to varying degrees. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze different energy structures and their corresponding energy costs, consider whether the energy structure is acceptable from an economic and social perspective, use the acceptable energy structure and cost impact as the basis for energy planning, and consider what policies to use Support energy structure adjustment.