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Since the beginning of this year, the rise in international oil prices has made crude oil bulls proud. Oil prices have rebounded strongly and are approaching six-month highs, spurred by multiple positive factors such as a weaker U.S. dollar, stronger Chinese economic data, falling non-OPEC output and rising demand. Crude oil markets have not priced in a supply disruption risk premium over the past month, given that global inventories are strong enough to withstand short-term disruptions. However, severe and prolonged disruptions could quickly become too big to ignore.
Last week, due to the outbreak of global supply disruptions, the decline in production provided strong support for oil prices. Oil prices resisted the negative monthly report and the rebound of the US dollar and continued to rise. The strike in Nigeria is expected to pave the way for changes in fundamentals this week. . Anyone who doesn’t understand the trend can add Xue Qingqian’s prestige
Asphalt technical analysis: From an hourly perspective, the asphalt price index maintains box ordering. The upper part is pulled back into the box by resistance from the upper edge of the box to continue sorting, and the lower part is pulled back into the box by the box to continue sorting. The support of the lower edge of the body. In day operations, focus on the resistance of the upper edge of the box and the support of the lower edge. In operation, it is recommended to overestimate and undervalue in the range. On the daily line, a small negative line was collected last Friday, running near the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands. , stabilizing above the moving average indicator, the overall trend is mainly bullish, and the intraday operation is mainly bullish.
Oil prices rose slightly during the Asian session on Monday (Monday). U.S. crude oil and Brent both rose more than 50%. Brent is currently hovering around .USD/barrel, which is close to the US dollar mark. The current level of the asphalt market is Nearby, the overall Asian market showed a high consolidation pattern. After Canada, Nigeria's crude oil supply was hit hard again. Goldman Sachs believes that the oversupply of crude oil may have turned into a shortage of demand. Based on this, crude oil asphalt prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, but during the day China The stock market has rebounded significantly, and we do not rule out the possibility of stock speculation funds entering the market again in the short term. The diversion of funds has also become a resistance to the continued strong rebound of the crude oil asphalt market, which deserves attention.
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for crude oil demand in India and Russia this year due to a surge in car sales. At the same time, the bank also raised its expectations for China's short-term stimulus policies and raised its annual crude oil demand growth forecast to 10,000 barrels/day from the previous 10,000 barrels/day. Saudi Arabia may face difficulties this year due to reduced demand for crude oil from the power industries of Brazil and Japan.
Oil-producing countries Liberia, Canada, and Nigeria have experienced supply reductions, and oil prices may rise further and touch the dollar mark. Declining U.S. production and inventories boosted oil prices higher. In the week ending March 31, crude oil inventories fell by 30,000 barrels, and crude oil production in various U.S. states fell by 10,000 barrels per day.
Specific operation strategies for asphalt:
. Go long near the pullback, stop loss, and the target is reached
. If it breaks through the high point of last week, you can follow the trend to chase the increase, stop loss, and the target is reached
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