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Last Friday (July 2), spot gold once again experienced a roller-coaster trend, with the overall trend of rising and falling during the session, while the U.S. dollar turned higher, and crude oil and asphalt also reported a negative daily doji. Investors are racking their brains, hoping to decipher the timing of raising interest rates through speeches by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other Fed officials. I believe investors are still fresh in their minds about the back-and-forth fluctuations in the market on Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen’s speech gave the market two ways to interpret it. I have to admire the Fed’s Tai Chi magic as it becomes more and more proficient with it. Yellen's initial hawkish speech was interpreted by the market as very dovish. The reason is also very simple, because Yellen mentioned such a sentence in her speech. Future policymakers may want to explore the possibility of purchasing a wider range of assets. When talking about how to deal with the next round of economic recession, she not only mentioned interest rate cuts, Also talked about asset purchases and forward guidance. She even said that policymakers could make more changes in the future, including adjusting the inflation target and expanding the range of target assets. This made risk assets very excited for a time. But unfortunately, the second-largest person in the Federal Reserve, Vice Chairman, came forward to give an interpretation. His speech on Friday, Yellen's speech, indicated that the possibility of raising interest rates up to two times this year immediately poured a heavy blow on the newly cheerful market. A basin of cold water.
The signal sent out by the globally watched conference is that the world of central banks will never return to what it was before the financial crisis. Despite facing huge pressure from public opinion that the stimulus is ineffective, central bankers in various countries have concluded how to further enhance the effectiveness of monetary stimulus. The United States will release monthly non-agricultural data on Friday this week. Since Yellen said at the central bank conference on Friday that the situation in recent months has increased the possibility of raising interest rates, Lao Xie Alchemy reminded investors whether the current U.S. employment data can provide support. It is worthy of the market’s attention. The market's expectation for monthly new non-agricultural employment was 10,000, and the monthly non-agricultural employment continued to be impressive. The .0,000 figure far exceeded expectations, pushing up monthly interest rate hike expectations. The president of the Cleveland Fed (who has voting rights) will speak in the early hours of Friday morning Beijing time, and the president of the Richmond Fed will speak on interest rate indicators on Saturday.
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