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Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will speak at the annual meeting of global central bank governors. As an important voice window for the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy, any disturbance at this annual meeting has attracted much attention from the market. Thanks to the hawkish remarks of three Federal Reserve officials last week, the market's expectations for Yellen's speech are negative for gold and silver. Starting from Monday, spot gold has been weak, and the U.S. dollar has risen in the short term. The author predicts that it is more likely that Yellen won't explicitly signal Fed action next month. In other words, although there are optimistic remarks, it does not mean that the specific time for raising interest rates will be announced. Leaving a ray of space and suspense for the market is what the Federal Reserve often does. Therefore, Lao Xie Alchemy reminded investors yesterday not to If we blindly go short, now that the short market we warned before has emerged, the market will naturally receive some support at this point. We need to further observe the strength of the support and the results of Yellen's specific speech.
As early as Wednesday, the author mentioned in the article that the theme of this Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is to design a flexible future monetary policy framework. That is to say, judging from the title of Yellen’s speech, the Fed’s monetary policy tools, Yellen may not provide much actionable information on the near-term interest rate outlook. Since the financial crisis, the central bank's annual meeting has often been a precursor to changes in the Fed's monetary policy. At two important annual meetings, including 2018 and 2018, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at quantitative easing.
As for the Fed's forecast of raising interest rates, I personally think that no matter what Yellen says at the moment, she cannot admit that she will not raise interest rates this year, otherwise it will cause big trouble, because this may shock the market. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly pushed back expectations for further interest rate hikes this year. So from this conservative perspective, not raising interest rates without pressure means telling the market that we will raise interest rates. Such expectations will suppress the upward trend of gold prices in the long term, and the remaining time points for interest rate hikes are months. From a data point of view, this month's US dollar data is indeed good, but Lao Xie Lianjin believes that it is not enough to support the Federal Reserve to take action in this month. Therefore, it is more likely to give a signal to raise interest rates at the annual meeting like last year, but the final interest rate hike will Wait until month.
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