Year1
- 规格：
- 15cm*20cm
- 规格：
- 20cm*30cm
- 规格：
- 30cm*40cm
said that under the simulation scenario, the annual yield rate will be reduced by 1 basis point based on the starting point of the Federal Reserve Fund and whether it will increase by trillions or trillions, as well as forward guidance. But this would not be very effective if the fed funds and annual yields were deliberately not below zero. If interest rates are already expected to be low, there isn't a lot of room for forward guidance. All of this leads to the conclusion that large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance on the future path of the federal funds rate have little ability to offset the shock now, but may be able to provide enough additional accommodation in the future to fully compensate in some cases but not all case, perhaps not even the more limited (ability) to lower short-term interest rates in most cases. It is believed that a careful reading of the Federal Reserve documents shows that the Federal Reserve is actually unable to withstand a sharp economic recession. If we had a recession today or a year (or even two) from now, the Fed's weapons likely wouldn't come close to the capabilities described in the document. At the Fed meeting this month, the median federal funds rate at the end of the year was .%, and I'm guessing it's even lower now. Markets even expect the federal funds rate to remain unchanged by one basis point before the end of the year. The question the Fed document revealed with relief is the effectiveness of interest rate guidance as interest rates rise from a starting point. So if the federal funds rate is 0.0%, it would make the comprehensive policy tool more effective. So what impact does the Fed document have on markets and the Fed? It depends on whether it's a hawk or a dove. The hawks want to raise rates faster, not slower. Assume the next recession occurs a year from now and originates from a source unrelated to Fed policy, such as the collapse of the European Union or a major geopolitical event. For example, if the federal funds rate is 1 basis point, they may meet once or twice to stimulate it by lowering the policy rate while laying the groundwork for larger stimulus from fiscal or helicopter money that may be needed. If the federal funds rate is low, investors, households and companies may lose confidence as they realize that policy is going nowhere. Perhaps, as Japan did in the months after its unfortunate rate hike in 2019, the Fed may eventually be forced to cut rates despite its constant blows.
WhatsApp
