Year1
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The minutes of the Federal Reserve's monthly meeting released last week surprised the market. After the minutes were released, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this month dropped. The U.S. dollar index showed a downward trend last week. Although bulls began to rebound last Friday and early this Monday, it still maintained its downward trend. The price of gold fell below important support on Monday, and attention will be paid to the support below. Continue to hold last week's short orders, stop loss, and take profit. Silver fell sharply at the opening this morning, and has now fallen below the mark, reaching as low as... In terms of operation, the main focus is short selling on rallies.
Basically, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting released in the early hours of last Thursday showed that Fed officials were divided on whether to raise interest rates soon. Some Fed officials supported a monthly interest rate hike, and some members agreed at the monthly meeting that they should raise interest rates. More data needs to be seen beforehand, and some voting members of the Fed said at its monthly meeting that a rate hike may be needed soon. Most members expect low inflation risks. As employment continues to increase, many voting members expressed disapproval of raising interest rates in the short term for fear of slowing employment growth in the future.
Before the minutes, the federal funds rate market showed that the probability of a monthly interest rate hike was .%, .% by month, and .% by next month. After the minutes, the federal funds rate market showed a monthly rate hike probability of .%, .% in March, and .% next year.
Federal Reserve Bullard delivered a speech on the U.S. economy last Wednesday. Bullard said that he reiterated that he expected to raise interest rates once in the next two years. There is no reason to believe that the U.S. economy is heading for recession. In an environment of low growth and low inflation, it is expected that interest rates will be raised once in the foreseeable future. Bullard also said that the Fed is very close to its target, that a rebound in U.S. economic growth is crucial to raising interest rates, and that the U.S. unemployment rate will remain at this level, or possibly lower.
Federal Reserve Dudley gave a speech on Thursday night. New York Fed President Dudley said that labor market conditions continued to improve. The economic growth in the United States in the past two months has eased previous concerns. There are positive signs that the weakening of the job market has improved. weaken. Dudley also said that job growth has remained very strong, and his view has not changed since Tuesday, and that strong economic performance in the third quarter will be more inclined to raise interest rates.
San Francisco Fed President Williams said it was reasonable to raise interest rates and called for a rate hike sooner rather than later. Waiting too long to raise interest rates risks a hard landing or even recession. An earlier hike could lead to a more gradual pace of hikes. Recent inflation data looks more favorable, with inflation on track to reach the % target. The U.S. economy is strong and we are already largely at full employment.
The U.S. dollar index has shown signs of rebound, but it is still in a downward channel during the hour and currently remains below.
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