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Introduction: This week’s crude oil inventory data seriously deviated from expectations, which is confusing and every recent Weekly inventory reports are increasingly exceeding expectations. The biggest driving factor causing this strange phenomenon is said to be the rarest scene this year during the data processing process.
[Author: Oil and Gas Jun; Article Source: WeChat Official Account&;Oil and Gas Investment Survey:]
Recently, the weekly inventory report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has exceeded expectations more and more often. This week's inventory report announced a decrease of 10,000 barrels, while most market expectations were for an increase of 10,000 barrels. It is important to mention that this weird and unexpected inventory report was achieved when U.S. crude oil imports returned to a high level of import average of 10,000 barrels per day and U.S. crude oil production declined and stagnated. The biggest driving factor for this phenomenon is this week’s data processing. In the process, the largest negative adjustment value () occurred this year
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The negative adjustment value announced this week is -10,000 barrels/day, and the average adjustment value so far this year is 10,000 barrels/day, which means that the adjustment value this week deviates from the average by about 10,000 barrels/day, thus causing a single week Inventory data seriously exceeded expectations.
What most investors may not know is that the data in the U.S. weekly crude oil inventory report is not real-time weekly data, but estimated data based on multiple data processing methods and data source channels
For example U.S. domestic crude oil production data are derived from extrapolated estimates based on the U.S. Energy Administration's extrapolation method. Under such a data statistics and processing system, in order to make up for the errors in its own data calculations, an adjustment value will be given based on the weekly data processing to balance some errors in the weekly data processing process. This adjustment value itself has no trend. Searching. Therefore, in the opinion of industry insiders, the inventory-than-expected situation caused by the large deviation from the single-week adjustment value is an accidental phenomenon.
Generally speaking, if there is a negative value in the adjustment value, the negative value range is usually within -10,000 barrels/day. This week’s adjustment value has been the largest adjustment this year. -.10,000 barrels/day is almost close to The situation of breaking through the lower line is shown in the figure below. From the chart above, we can clearly see that the negative adjustment value this week is the largest negative value this year, while the adjustment value in the past few months has been positive at 10,000 barrels per day. Therefore, if we look at the average adjusted values over the past few months, combined with the return of U.S. crude oil imports to a peak, the no longer declining U.S. crude oil production, and the slowdown in demand as refineries begin to enter the off-season, there is a theoretical probability of an inventory increase this week. Large, but due to the uncontrollable deviations introduced by the data processing process, this week's data seriously deviated from expectations.
Hunan Weide Investment Promotion (Fortune
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