Year1
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【Crude Oil Direct Attack】On the last trading day, international oil prices rose by more than 100%. Increasing tensions between the United States and Iraq, coupled with expectations that the dollar exchange rate will fall, are both positive for oil prices. While a U.S. warship was sailing in international waters, it was approached by multiple Iranian ships. The U.S. fired flares and sounded a horn warning. Concerns that relations between the two countries have become tense have spurred a rise in oil prices. In addition, the expectation that the dollar exchange rate will fall after Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen's speech on Friday is also positive for oil prices. However, the Saudi Energy Minister said in an interview with Reuters that there was no need for large-scale intervention in the oil market, which slightly narrowed the increase in oil prices before the market closed. New York oil futures closed at US$.00 per barrel, rising US cents, or .00%. London oil futures closed at .USD, up US cents, or .%. In addition, the sentiment of Chinese and American stock markets, the latest proposals, the situation in the Middle East and inventory status, Iranian supply news, and U.S. oil export policy will also affect oil prices. From the supply side, the market share game among major oil-producing countries is still continuing. None of the major oil-producing countries seems to have any plans to take the lead in reducing production. Although some oil-producing countries have supply constraints due to armed unrest and other factors, Iran Saudi Arabia and other countries are stepping up efforts to seize market share, and production restrictions remain on paper. U.S. production is gradually recovering, and concerns about oversupply remain difficult to eliminate. From the demand side, the northern hemisphere summer is the peak season for energy demand. However, the political situation in Europe is turbulent and global economic data also suggests that the foundation for recovery is not solid. The demand for crude oil is still growing very slowly. In the long term, it also faces the threat of being replaced by new energy sources. After the oil price fell to its lowest level in more than a year, there were active buyers actively buying the bottom. As supply and demand fundamentals improved, oil prices rebounded. However, the semi-annual meeting to limit production failed again. Iran led the Gulf countries to compete to increase production, and US shale oil and gas drilling resumed one after another. production, oil prices weakened and once fell below the round-number mark. Oil-producing countries resumed their old tone of freezing production and speculation, triggering a strong rebound and rising in a short squeeze style. However, profit taking fled after testing the round number and it seemed that the counterattack was also It is difficult to change the signs of a downward trend. Saudi Arabia’s sincerity in limiting production is questionable. It is temporarily difficult to confirm whether the story of the crying wolf will happen again. We need to be alert to the risk of oil prices falling sharply from highs due to too much killing. If economic data is positive for stock market sentiment, or events affect crude oil supply expectations, oil prices will still have the opportunity to challenge the pressure level again in the future. However, we must also be wary that the pattern of the supply game has not been truly broken, and the development of the prisoner's dilemma may cause oil prices to fall sharply in the later period. Support Look at the resistance... At present, oil prices are greatly affected by the news. It is recommended that investors pay close attention to changes in the news and follow the trend at all times.
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