Year1
- 50：
- 50
- 40：
- 40
- 2：
- 30
Negative factors: 1. Production, led by Saudi Arabia, continued to increase in August, reaching a new high, with an increase of 10,000 barrels per day. Data shows that no oil-producing country intends to reduce production. It is obvious that the recently hotly discussed production freeze may come to nothing again.
Second, the market expects that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again ahead of schedule. The rising expectations of interest rate hikes push up the U.S. index. Affected by this, crude oil asphalt has continued to fall to recent monthly lows. Technical selling, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar in the first four trading days of last week Interest rate expectations are a key factor leading to the continuous decline in oil prices.
U.S. crude oil inventories for the week announced on Wednesday night exceeded expectations by 1.0 million barrels, with Cushing inventories falling the most since the week of March 2018. However, refined oil inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and the increase in crude oil inventories is greater than expected. Coupled with the unexpected large increase in refined oil announced this morning, oil prices further expanded their losses. In addition, gasoline inventories fell less than expected, and the increase in refined oil was greater than expected, but domestic production in the United States fell again.
IV The Iraqi Prime Minister plans to have a dialogue with the Kurds on increasing crude oil output. The Iraqi Prime Minister emphasized the importance of increasing crude oil output and hopes that the Kurds will hand over crude oil exports from Kurdistan and Kirkuk to the federal government. The region will receive government funding in return. The Iraqi oil minister had agreed to participate in the production freeze, but the Kurds wanted to increase crude oil production.
Multiple factors
4. After recording the largest increase in four months last week, U.S. crude oil inventories continued to increase this week, although the increase was slightly smaller than expected. Both Cushing crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories increased. The price of refined oil increased by nearly 10,000 barrels.
The U.S. monthly seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population growth announced on Friday was .00 million, which was expected to be . Dragged down by the decline in the number of people, the monthly non-farm payrolls in the United States fell short of expectations, ending two consecutive months of strong gains. Although the unemployment rate remained unchanged at .%, this basically eliminated the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this month.
Building Construction
International spot crude oil prices unexpectedly closed higher on Friday, ending five consecutive negative days. Technically, on the daily line, the moving averages are arranged in a short position, with the hook upwards, the double lines extending downwards, and the green kinetic energy is increasing hourly. Looking at the chart, the short-term moving average crosses the golden cross and rises, running below the line to form support. Oil price runs below the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands, suppressed by the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands. The US dollar's first line double line is located below the axis and the golden cross rises, and the red kinetic energy increases. Taken together, the callback trend is expected to continue next Monday. Zi Yi's operating strategy recommends focusing on lows and longs.
In the U.S. market on Friday, natural gas surged higher and fell after a short-term rise, and the overall fluctuations were maintained in a wide range. Natural gas hit the highest level and hit the lowest level on Friday. Technically, natural gas closed slightly lower on Friday. Overall, in the near future, The trend of natural gas remains volatile. The downward line is suppressed by the short-term daily and daily moving averages, and diverges downward. The double lines in the attached picture hook downward, and the red kinetic energy weakens. Looking at the hourly chart, the moving averages are arranged in a short position, extending downward. The double lines extend downward, and the green The kinetic energy is weakening. On the whole, natural gas is expected to continue to fluctuate downward next Monday. As for the operation strategy, Ziyi recommends rebounding and shorting.
Ranqi’s operation suggestions for next Monday
Short orders will rebound and go short, stop loss is 1 point, target
Buy orders will retrace one line and go long, stop loss will be 1 point, target
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