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The Federal Reserve stated that the reasons for raising interest rates have been strengthening. Since the beginning of this year, inflation has risen to a certain extent and it is waiting for more interest rate increases. Reason required. The Fed also said that the headwinds to inflation rising to % have weakened, and the market's compensatory indicators of inflation have risen. As the headwinds decrease, inflation will rise to %. These words indicate that there is a strong possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month, causing the probability of an interest rate hike shown by U.S. federal funds rate futures to soar to .%.
The U.S. dollar is under pressure and has become a driving force for silver’s rise
Although the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision announced overnight was hawkish, the U.S. dollar index did not receive a boost. This is due to the approaching U.S. presidential election and the political tensions brought about by the election. Uncertainty has further affected the U.S. index, which is under pressure, and the D data released on Wednesday was lower than expected, which suppressed the U.S. index. The weakness of the US dollar index and the increase in market uncertainty are the driving forces for the rise of precious metals.
The increase in Trump’s approval rating has become a driving force for the rise of silver
The U.S. election is an important factor affecting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. If the U.S. election has too great an impact on the financial market, even such as the Brexit referendum, In that case, given the factors that stabilize the market, the Fed's interest rate hike at the end of the year is likely to be in vain. The Federal Reserve has always attached great importance to market expectation management.
Due to Hillary's email scandal recently, American voters' favor for Trump has increased. The latest survey shows that Trump's votes are slightly ahead of Hillary by a percentage point, which is a major factor leading to the rise of precious metals.
Non-agricultural unknowns? Silver rises or falls?
The employment data released on Wednesday fell short of expectations, recording only 0.000 people, a new low since January. This may imply that Friday’s non-agricultural data may not be as good as expected. Not as optimistic as economists expected. Judging from the current expectations of Bloomberg economists, the median expected number of non-farm payrolls this time is 10,000.
Data released by data processing company D on Wednesday (May 1) showed that the number of monthly employment in the United States, known as small non-agricultural employment, continued to grow, but the growth rate was lower than market expectations.
Detailed data shows that the number of U.S. employment increased by 0.000 per month, which is lower than the increase of 0.000 expected by analysts. The lowest forecast by analysts was an increase of 0.000, and the highest was an increase of 0.000. At the same time, the monthly employment growth rate was revised up to 0.000 from the previous 0.000.
In terms of specific industries, the number of employment in the construction industry decreased by 0.000 per month and increased by 0.000 per month. The number of employment in the manufacturing industry decreased by 0.000 per month and increased by 0.000 per month. The number of employment in trade/transportation/utilities increased by 0.000 per month and increased by 0.000 per month. The number of new employment in the financial services industry increased by 0.0 million, a monthly increase of . Ten thousand new employment in professional/commercial services increased by .000, a monthly increase of .000.
Moody's Chief Economist Jandi commented that although the pace of employment growth has slowed, employment growth remains strong. Sectors with slow job growth include construction, education and mining. The vice president of D Employment Data Company said that as the global economic environment has less adverse effects on large American companies, the main source of employment growth seems to have shifted from small businesses to large companies.
After the data is released, the U.S. Department of Labor will release non-farm employment data on Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters on average predicted that all nonfarm payroll employment would increase by 10,000. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to .% from .% last month.
The employment population is based on an anonymous survey of the employment status of approximately 10,000 U.S. business customers. The data calculation method is similar to the U.S. Department of Labor's monthly labor market data, and is released two days before the Department of Labor data is released. Therefore, it is usually regarded as the leading reference indicator before the monthly non-farm payroll report, but the indicator is highly volatile. . However, the D data has a strong positive correlation with non-agricultural employment. It is generally believed that if the D data performs satisfactorily, it is basically certain that non-agricultural employment will perform well. Therefore, the poor performance of D this time has laid the foundation for Friday’s non-agricultural employment report. Hidden danger.
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