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The director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday (May 1) that economies that have implemented negative interest rates have obtained "positive effects" from it, but negative interest rate policies have their limits.
Bankers may experience short-term profit declines, but will benefit from improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals and upward adjustments in the prices of assets such as government bonds they hold, said the bank.
Ahead of this week's spring meeting in Washington, the U.S. said protracted weakness has left the global economy vulnerable to sharp currency depreciations and worsening geopolitical conflicts. The agency also further lowered the annual global growth rate to .%, after previously lowering it to .% in March. The agency had lowered its economic growth forecast twice in March and March last year.
said, &Overall, negative interest rates do more good than harm to the economy. But his views conflicted with German Finance Minister Schaeuble, who stressed that the European Central Bank's record low interest rates were causing "big problems" for German banks and pensioners and could undermine voters' support. Support for European integration.
pointed out that it is a "narrow view" to only focus on the decline in short-term profitability of banks to evaluate the effect of negative interest rates. But at the same time, he also admitted that banks will not be able to pass on negative interest rates to savers, and said that long-term negative interest rates will eventually cause damage to the insurance and fund industries.
However, banks can benefit from a lot of things that come with monetary stimulus, whether in the form of low or negative interest rates or quantitative easing. For example, monetary stimulus can improve economic prospects, which in turn can help improve asset quality, reduce non-performing loans, and reduce reserves. All of this can enhance a bank's viability. "In addition," he added, "savers can also benefit from an improvement in the macroeconomic environment, because a positive macroeconomic environment will support the value of financial assets, housing prices, employment, and government tax revenue." This does more good than harm. &
On the issue of Brexit, it is believed that, "If the UK decides to withdraw from the EU in October, it will have a negative impact on the British and European economies, and will also damage London's status as a financial center." &
He said, "Brexit will have a negative impact on the UK and the EU from an economic and financial perspective, which will have an adverse impact on confidence, including people's confidence in London as a global financial center." &
Due to the weakness of the US dollar, the downward pressure on China’s foreign exchange reserves is expected to be further eased. As the yuan strengthens, China's central bank has been able to reduce market intervention aimed at curbing capital outflows. Economists expect that foreign reserves data to be released today will show that the decline in China's foreign exchange reserves has slowed down in March. Liquidity has improved, and the People's Bank of China may be able to suspend the pace of lowering the deposit reserve ratio.
In the past year, there has been a fairly high correlation between China's deposit reserve ratio and foreign exchange reserves.
Bloomberg predicts that data released on Thursday is expected to show that China's foreign exchange reserves will experience the smallest decline in March since last month, which was the last time that foreign exchange reserves increased.
China's stock market rose for the month and the yuan also climbed against the dollar. The domestic economy is showing signs of stabilizing and the manufacturing industry is rebounding, which will also help reverse market sentiment. "This relative calm cannot be regarded as a permanent feature," Wei Shangjin, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, cautioned. "In a few months, U.S. fundamentals may change." Wei Shangjin pointed out that another sharp fall in the stock market or a downturn in real estate may prompt capital outflows. Weak Chinese exports or rising import prices will curb the current account surplus, which is a key line of defense to prevent capital outflows.
Since this month, China's central bank has taken measures to crack down on short-selling RMB speculators and increase the difficulty of cross-border foreign exchange for domestic funds. The central bank also consumes foreign exchange reserves to support the yuan exchange rate. The forecast level of China's foreign exchange reserves in March is around . trillion US dollars, down about % from the peak.
A former IMF economist pointed out that China's official foreign exchange reserves are still huge and can easily withstand such consumption for a period of time. One positive is that China is now closer to clearing out foreign-currency borrowing it used to bet on the yuan's appreciation, Citi Research said. These borrowings have contributed to a rapid rise in dollar debt over the past few years, reaching 1% of GDP. Now, however, as expectations of U.S. currency tightening accelerate, capital outflows from China are accelerating. The bank said there are currently few signs that Chinese investors’ needs to diversify their assets overseas have been fully met. The challenge for policymakers will be compounded if more deposits are moved offshore.
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