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The market is currently generally unsure whether OPEC can reach an agreement at the oil production reduction meeting at the end of this month, but Morgan Stanley pointed out that OPEC has the strength
Talk about rising prices and issued a warning on short positions ahead of the official OPEC meeting on March 1.
At the meeting in Algeria in late March, OPEC reached a production reduction agreement framework, saying that OPEC production will be limited to 10 million barrels
The specific quota of each country will be announced on the next month. Determined at the formal conference in Vienna.
Morgan Stanley analysts said that although the fundamentals are still relatively weak, they cannot support the reversal of oil prices, and the market has become accustomed to discussing falling oil prices. But the outcome of the OPEC meeting could shock markets.
In fact, OPEC has issued bullish views several times during low liquidity periods (such as US holidays), mainly on OPEC intervention news,
But each time the short positions have become more many.
Morgan Stanley acknowledged that there is reason to doubt OPEC's ability to stay the course, but also warned that oil prices could fluctuate sharply in response to major
news at the OPEC meeting. Investors' market operations have proven that even if OPEC intervenes in the market to reduce production, the possibility is low. They are also unwilling to go against OPEC and establish short positions.
He said, "Essentially, this is similar to the proverb in financial markets, "Don't fight the Fed", and now it can also be said, don't fight OPEC.
Morgan Stanley experts believe that if crude oil prices continue to decline, news that is optimistic about OPEC's agreement will increase. Although OPEC may not
faithfully implement the agreement, crude oil prices will still rise.
Morgan Stanley believes that U.S. dollar oil prices are usually the key price point to start negotiations, & therefore, OPEC may announce a production reduction agreement to increase
prices even if it does not implement its plan. In other words, a large number of uncertain events and risks still exist. &
Recently, the production freeze operation has been in full swing. The CEO of a global independent oil trader
said that the preliminary agreement to freeze oil production has laid a bottom for oil prices. It is expected that the annual oil price will trade between US dollars per barrel. . It is expected that oil prices may rise to a high of US$/barrel in 2020.
Analysts at Commerzbank said that since the end of the month, oil prices have risen by nearly %, but this is largely driven by speculation
Affected by rising oil prices, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the United States continues to increase, and oil prices may therefore will fall.
The bank's report showed that the net long position in Brent crude oil increased by 10,000 in the past two weeks, approaching the highest level since the end of the month. This indicates that speculative interest
is high.
pointed out that, in fact, investor optimism is at a record high, mainly driven by expectations that production cuts will be reached at the end of the month
If the market questions the production reduction agreement, or long positions are reduced, the adverse impact on oil prices will be huge. And the side effects of high oil prices are obvious: U.S. shale oil producers have begun to increase production.
Data released by U.S. oil services company Baker Hughes () show that the total number of U.S. oil rigs has increased every week in the past week.
Since the end of the month, the number of oil rigs has increased. This suggests that a reversal of the downward trend in U.S. oil production is imminent. Therefore, the bank expects oil prices to be revised lower in the coming weeks.
In addition, although crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased last week, gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased by 10,000 barrels, while market analysts expected a decrease of 10,000 barrels.
This casts a shadow on the outlook for oil prices. Traders pointed out: &While the inventory report is more positive overall, we cannot ignore the significant increase in gasoline inventories.
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