Year1
- 白银：
- 15千克
- 基差：
- 15千克
- 升贴水：
- 15千克
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International spot silver opened at .USD/oz in early trading on Tuesday (June) in the Asian market, down .%, down .USD. The U.S. third-quarter revised value and consumer confidence index released during the U.S. market performed surprisingly well, further supporting the Federal Reserve's expectations for a monthly interest rate hike, but the U.S. dollar index's reaction was relatively muted. The Fed's message of raising interest rates has become increasingly strong, but the market's reaction has been relatively muted. We are about to face two major uncertainties in the near future, which may push up the rise of precious metals.
Can non-agricultural data help the US dollar rebound?
U.S. monthly non-agricultural employment data will be released this Friday (May 1). From a fundamental point of view, the quality of non-agricultural data is directly related to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. the pace and number of interest rate hikes in the coming year. The non-farm payroll data is evidence for the Federal Reserve's implementation of the next monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's current non-farm payroll data is expected to be positive for the US dollar, while on the contrary, the non-farm payroll data is expected to be negative for precious metals.
On Tuesday (July 2), U.S. data performed surprisingly well, and expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve were further strengthened. However, the reaction of the U.S. dollar index was relatively muted. This phenomenon shows that the market has fully responded to the Fed's interest rate hike expectations in the early stage, so that the impact of the data on the market is relatively weakened. As the market digests expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, it can be predicted that the non-agricultural data will have a relatively weak impact on market fluctuations.
The Italian referendum may turn into a "black swan"
The Italian referendum will be held on October 1. Italian Prime Minister Renzi's constitutional reform plan will make power more concentrated. If the constitutional reform is passed, the Italian stock market may be strong. A rebound comes as political uncertainty risk premiums are priced out and momentum gathers for pro-growth policies. Simpler market conditions could soothe debt concerns and aid plans to recapitalize banks.
If rejected by Italian voters. Renzi has said he would resign in response to such a result. Renzi resigns and another official from Italy's Democratic Party will likely be appointed to head the new government. This will trigger an early election in the country, increasing the probability that the anti-EU Five Star party will take power. It promises to launch a referendum on Brexit immediately after being elected. If Italy leaves the EU, it may cause an increase in risk aversion in the market, causing gold and silver prices to rise sharply. Judging from the current situation, the probability of rejection in the Italian referendum is greater.
Analysis and summary of First Silver Network: Judging from the current market reaction, the sharp decline in gold and silver prices in the early stage has fully paved the way for negative news such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the Italian referendum, and released many negative news in advance. pressure. When the negative side of these uncertainties is exhausted, the price of silver is likely to bottom out and rise sharply.
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