Year1
- 燃气：
- 10000
- 铜：
- 25000
- 银：
- 5000
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Introduction: Recently, the U.S. dollar index broke through the mark, and the U.S. stock market also continued to rise. Liu Chenjie, chairman of Wangzheng Global Macro Hedge Fund and former Goldman Sachs China strategist, said that Trump’s coming to power and his remarks to stimulate the economy have led to market expectations that the United States will usher in a new round of economic recovery. However, once Trump's anti-globalization rhetoric is implemented, it will lead to rising inflation in the United States, dragging down the economy, and the consequences will be unimaginable. Liu Chenjie said that currently, in terms of fiscal policy, Trump advocates tax cuts and reduction of government spending, while supporting infrastructure and stimulating the national economy. In terms of monetary policy, he tends to criticize the Federal Reserve's past low interest rate policies.
Recently, the U.S. dollar index broke through the mark, and the U.S. stock market also continued to rise. Liu Chenjie, chairman of Wangzheng Global Macro Hedge Fund and former Goldman Sachs China strategist, said that Trump’s coming to power and his remarks to stimulate the economy have led to market expectations that the United States will usher in a new round of economic recovery. However, once Trump's anti-globalization rhetoric is implemented, it will lead to rising inflation in the United States, dragging down the economy, and the consequences will be unimaginable.
Liu Chenjie said that currently, in terms of fiscal policy, Trump advocates tax cuts and reduction of government spending, while supporting infrastructure and stimulating the national economy. In terms of monetary policy, he tends to criticize the Federal Reserve's past low interest rate policies.
&But the development of infrastructure investment requires low interest rate policies. Liu Chenjie pointed out that Trump’s campaign slogans more or less reflect the interests and opinions of the class he represents, but these remarks may not be fully fulfilled.
So, what impact will Trump’s election as president have on the U.S. economy? Liu Chenjie analyzed that after 2020, the U.S. economy will mainly rely on two points. One is that the government increases leverage and businesses and residents reduce leverage to increase vitality. The other is The Federal Reserve continues to support the economy.
But in fact, the old model, including the model after Obama came to power, was supported by releasing water, which caused the asset prices of property owners to continue to soar, but also led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor. The American people are looking forward to change. At this time, Trump's proposal of US$100 million in infrastructure investment has led the market to expect that the United States will usher in a new round of economic recovery. The recent surge in US stocks and US bonds has reflected this expectation.
With the stabilization of the global financial market and the improvement of U.S. employment and inflation data, it is more likely to raise interest rates in March. However, this interest rate hike has basically been reflected in the assessment and pricing of risk assets. The impact on the capital market will not be too great.
In addition, it is worth noting that during the campaign, Trump repeatedly stated that he would label China a currency manipulator, triggering market concerns about a slowdown or even stagnation of globalization.
Liu Chenjie believes that, first of all, the United States is a big consumer country, with consumption accounting for about 50% of the total. If China and Southeast Asia do not provide cheap necessities, inflation in the United States will rise rapidly and the overall economy will be dragged down. The consequences are unimaginable. "Trump mentions China as a currency manipulator just for votes, but he will eventually compromise."
In addition, the economies of China and the United States have a great influence on each other. Take last year's exchange rate reform as an example, which caused shocks in the global market and postponed the Federal Reserve's original interest rate hike scheduled for October to October. At the Hangzhou Summit, The two countries have also reached a certain tacit understanding on the RMB exchange rate. China and the United States must focus on cooperative relations in the future.
>Sichuan Xingshu bulk commodities agent | Sichuan Xingshu bulk commodities personal agent | Sichuan Xingshu bulk commodities company agent, Ms. Chen | Sichuan Xingshu bulk commodities agent investment | Sichuan Xingshu bulk commodities agent | Sichuan Xingshu bulk commodities Commodity agency process | Sichuan Xingshu bulk commodity agency
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