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Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission once again Coal prices have been regulated, and the three major coal companies have collectively lowered coal prices, triggering market concerns that coal prices may fall at any time. Guotai Junan's coal industry analysis team said that policy regulation has limited short-term impact on coal prices. Coal prices are easy to rise but hard to fall around the year. The coal sector will see improved performance and increased valuations. If the market risk appetite increases in the later period, coal stocks will have upward elasticity. higher.
Guotai Junan's coal industry analysis team pointed out that in the past two trading days, coking coal futures rose sharply by .3, thermal coal futures rose sharply by .
In terms of demand, the monthly and monthly thermal power generation volumes in the past five years have increased month-on-month respectively. Due to the influence of the La Niña phenomenon this winter, the probability of a cold winter is high, and coal demand will increase compared with normal years.
On the supply side, the decline in raw coal production in the previous month has resulted in a shortage of supply. Although the National Development and Reform Commission began to gradually release advanced production capacity from the middle of the month, due to the shortage of workers, adjustments to mining plans and transportation capacity constraints, the increase in supply was lower than expected, while advanced production capacity was sluggish. Fewer coal mines, scarce coking coal varieties, and high international coking coal prices have led to reduced imports and tighter supply.
In terms of inventory, although thermal coal power plant and port inventories have rebounded, they are still low compared with the same period in the past five years. Coking coal inventories have been on a downward trend this year. The average number of days of coking coal inventory available in domestic large and medium-sized steel plants It has dropped from the highest number of days at the beginning of the year to the current number of days, which is a new low in the past five years.
The Guotai Junan coal industry analysis team believes that coal prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall around the year, and policy regulation has limited short-term impact on coal prices. Rising coal prices will repair or even reverse pessimistic expectations about policy regulation.
In addition, Guotai Junan's coal industry analysis team mentioned that the first-year target of supply-side reform will be completed ahead of schedule in March. The strict implementation of overcapacity reduction will fundamentally improve the oversupply situation in the coal industry, and coal prices will rebound significantly.
The market’s expectations for the average annual coal price are expected to continue to increase. The outstanding completion of the reform goals will help increase the valuation of the coal sector. It is expected that the average coal price next year will be - yuan higher than this year, and will be around yuan. The performance of coal stocks will significantly increase. improve.
Chen Yan, an analyst at CICC, also believes that in the fourth quarter of this year, in addition to the traditional winter heating demand, there will also be demand for restocking. However, the growth of output and imports are relatively limited, and the price increase is expected to continue until the Spring Festival. The overall price of coal next year will remain at -yuan/ton. The profits of listed coal companies will continue to improve, and the attractiveness of valuations will gradually become apparent.
On May 1st, coal stocks were booming again, with the coal and non-ferrous metal sectors rising strongly, leading the gains in the two cities. Among them, Shaanxi Black Cat (, stock bar), Yunnan Copper (, stock bar), Luyin Investment ( , stock bar) hit the daily limit, Jizhong Energy (3, stock bar) was closed for a time, Pingmei Co., Ltd. (, stock bar), Jinrui Mining (, stock bar), etc. rose sharply.
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