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The person familiar with the matter said that Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi will hold talks with Russian Oil Minister Novak in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and OPEC member Venezuela will also participate.
Saudi Arabia has previously insisted that it will not reduce production to deal with the global oil glut unless major non-oil producing countries cooperate to reduce production. Novak, however, said he could consider cutting production if other major producers joined. But Sechin of Rosneft, Russia's largest oil company, said last week he would defend the country's traditional markets and cast doubt on coordinated action.
However, as oil prices continue to fall below the dollar per barrel this year, which may put Russia, which relies on its oil economy, facing rising financial pressure, the market is increasingly speculating that the world's two largest oil exporters may have the opportunity to discuss an agreement.
Private channels mediated by Qatar are already in place, said R, the company's chief oil analyst in London. Negotiations are still at a very early stage and no concrete agreement has been reached but there is a growing sense that both countries can be more flexible although Saudi Arabia will still insist that each producer needs to contribute to production cuts.
Brent crude oil rose as much as .% to the US dollar after the news broke.
The group first signaled its reluctance to cut production on its own in May to support oil prices but has held intermittently meetings between members and non-oil-producing countries since then. Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia and Mexico gathered in Vienna but failed to reach any agreement for the rest of the month. Venezuela’s energy minister contacted Saudi Arabia, Mexico and other countries earlier this month but failed to reach an agreement.
However, slight signs that a deal can be reached are also affecting oil markets. U.S. crude oil futures rose by 1.2% on March 26, the largest increase since the beginning of the year, as the United Arab Emirates reiterated OPEC's long-standing position that the organization is prepared to cooperate with non-oil-producing countries to reduce production.
The closed-door meeting chaired by Qatar’s oil minister was reminiscent of year-end oil diplomacy, but OPEC countries, with the help of Mexico, organized a series of secret meetings through private diplomatic channels from Miami to Amsterdam that ultimately led to joint production cuts.
Brent crude briefly rose above the dollar per barrel after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to maintain production at monthly levels, which may be the first agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-oil-producing countries in years.
Qatar Energy Minister Osada said this agreement can help stabilize the oil market. The oil market has experienced its worst price drop since the early 2000s due to oversupply.
Data released by market intelligence companies show that inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery site for U.S. crude oil, increased by nearly 10,000 barrels in the week ending March 1.
U.S. crude oil closed down. The U.S. dollar fell by .% to .USD/barrel and once rose to .USD. Brent crude oil closed down by .USD or .% to .USD/barrel. The US dollar briefly rose to .USD/barrel during the session.
A rally early on Tuesday lost momentum as investors assessed the possibility of an output freeze. Iran has not participated in the negotiations and is determined to increase production. Sources familiar with Iran's thinking said Iran has said it is willing to consider freezing output once it reaches pre-sanctions levels.
R of Capital Consulting said: "I expect prices to fall further from current levels. Freezing production will do nothing to reduce oversupply."
Goldman Sachs is also bearish on the plan, saying, "We believe there is still great uncertainty about whether the plan can be implemented."
But analysts also warn that if there are signs of a significant reduction in production or inventories, oil prices may rise sharply and the market may fluctuate significantly in the coming weeks. Brent and U.S. crude oil both surged about % on Friday, rising sharply from year-to-year lows as hopes of possible production cuts were rekindled.
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