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International crude oil prices rebounded slightly at the beginning of the Asian market on Wednesday (June). Later in the day, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold a Vienna meeting to discuss the implementation of the monthly production reduction agreement framework. However, due to the recent dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran on production reductions, The stalemate in scale has made the market full of doubts about whether this production reduction agreement can be reached. Oil prices have fluctuated sharply in both directions in the past few trading days.
U.S. crude oil futures rose .% on Wednesday to trade at US$.0 a barrel, after closing down .% overnight. Brent crude oil futures rose .% to trade at US$. daily decline.
Major exporters are now working to reach a deal to reduce global excess supply and boost prices, but just a day before the Vienna meeting, Iran and Iraq are still in a stalemate with Saudi Arabia.
Most analysts believe that a production reduction agreement will be reached at the meeting in Vienna. However, despite continued pressure from leader Saudi Arabia, the organization's second- and third-largest oil producers, Iran and Iraq, have not relented on production cuts, making it difficult to reach an agreement.
Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report that "Iran and Iraq refused to reduce production. Even if they want to reach the high end of the production range agreed at the Algeria meeting, other member countries (such as Saudi Arabia) will need to reduce production more significantly." From a political perspective, this is very difficult to achieve. &The bank is inclined to believe that a deal can be reached.
Sources familiar with the meeting documents said that documents prepared for the meeting showed that it was proposed to reduce daily production by 10,000 barrels on a monthly basis, slightly higher than the 10,000 barrels discussed at the Algeria meeting in March. The monthly production is approximately 10,000 barrels per day.
Russia confirmed on Tuesday that it would not attend the meeting, but said it might consult with it later.
Traders said the market is very tight and prices may fluctuate rapidly in both directions, depending on the progress of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Vienna meeting.
Analysts at Brokerage.com said, &At present, the prospects for reaching an agreement to limit production are not optimistic, and oil prices are reflecting this view. But always leave things to the last minute. &
said that if an agreement is reached, oil prices may rise above the U.S. dollar per barrel. If no agreement is reached, oil prices may fall but are unlikely to fall below the U.S. dollar.
Analysts said they believed an agreement would be reached at the "last minute", but the bank pointed out that the remaining issues may still be the original issue, which countries will reduce production and by how much.
It is expected that if an agreement cannot be reached, oil prices will fall below the US dollar per barrel. If an agreement can be reached, oil prices will return above the US dollar.
Asia is the largest export market for oil. Oil importing countries in Asia have said that they are not happy to artificially reduce supply to boost prices. Once production is reduced, they will look for more supply from outside.
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