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Regarding the minutes of last month’s monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve, most economists believe that the minutes show that Fed policymakers are increasingly worried about the global economic downturn and the deterioration of the financial environment. affect the U.S. economy. Some economists believe that the minutes show that after starting to raise interest rates last month, the Fed is still unwilling to raise interest rates again.
The minutes of last month’s meeting released by the Federal Reserve early this morning showed that policymakers at the meeting said it was unclear how factors such as the plunge in stock markets and oil prices, the slowdown in China’s economic growth, and the market’s lower inflation expectations would affect the U.S. economy, but generally Considered increased economic uncertainty. Many senior policymakers believe that these factors have increased the downside risks to the economy in the future. Some senior officials worry that if China's economic growth slows down more than expected, it may drag down the U.S. economic recovery. The situation in other emerging market economies is also worrying.
A senior economist at Canadian investment bank B r commented on the minutes of last month’s meeting and said
The Fed is very uncertain before it becomes clearer about the impact of the deterioration of financial conditions on the economy and inflation, and whether the financial situation will deteriorate further. Willing to pull the trigger on interest rate hikes again.
If the outlook is bleak, the Fed may not be blamed for taking a small step toward monetary tightening, but it may be blamed for a series of (tightening) actions that follow.
H, the chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics ( ), an international macroeconomic consulting organization, pointed out that the financial environment has improved since the end of the Federal Reserve meeting last month, but there is a possibility of continuing to raise interest rates at the next Federal Reserve meeting next month. Still very small. It predicts that by the middle of this year, concerns about economic collapse in China and the United States should diminish, and the pressure of rising domestic prices in the United States will become more difficult to ignore.
The chief economist of U.S. brokerage rr believes that the financial environment deteriorated sharply last month, and last year's market sell-off is still fresh in the minds of Fed policymakers.
Bz, chief economist of h, an investment research institution, believes that judging from the minutes of last month’s meeting, Fed policymakers further agreed that if the Fed’s near-term outlook for the US economy changes, it will only worsen. Regarding the current economic growth rate, senior policymakers have mixed opinions. Some believe that capital expenditures may be restrained, while others still expect to perform well this year.
Bz pointed out that the minutes of the meeting showed us that even though it admitted that U.S. economic growth had slowed down when it started to raise interest rates last month, China's economic slowdown has become an issue increasingly affecting the global economy, and the Fed's decision-makers are increasingly nervous about financial environment was a surprise. Regardless of how recent changes have affected economic growth and markets, the Fed still maintains medium-term economic growth above trend and inflation will pick up.
An earlier article in Wall Street News mentioned that in the minutes of its monthly meeting, the Federal Reserve used the terms uncertainty, downside risk, or downside in total, highlighting the concerns of Fed policymakers about the future economic prospects.
Reporter h of the Wall Street Journal (Blog, Weibo), known as the Federal Reserve News Agency, believes that the minutes of the monthly meeting show that Fed officials expressed certain concerns about the future, which means that the threshold for monthly interest rate hikes is changing. high. That threshold may now become even higher, given the sharp market volatility and lower inflation expectations.
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