Year1
- 白银：
- 15千克
- 基差：
- 15千克
- 升贴水：
- 15千克
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Suppressed by the Federal Reserve’s continued dovish comments, the U.S. dollar has recently suffered a widespread sell-off. Most institutions are not optimistic about the short-term trend of the U.S. dollar, believing that the U.S. dollar's unclear prospects for raising interest rates lack momentum and that this round of U.S. dollar gains may be coming to an end. The weakness of the US dollar undoubtedly provides conditions for the Japanese yen to continue to remain strong.
Carry trade stalled
Since the beginning of this year, as the monetary policies of the United States and other major economies have parted ways, the interest rate difference between U.S. Treasury bonds and the treasury bonds of other economies has widened. Driven by the carry trade, the U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly. But since the beginning of this year, this positive correlation has been broken, and although nominal interest rate differentials are still widening, the dollar's rise has stalled.
Regarding this "abnormal" phenomenon, analysts pointed out that while the Federal Reserve delayed raising interest rates, rising U.S. inflation led to a decline in real interest rates, making the U.S. dollar less attractive than before and the carry trade stalled. The latest data showed that the core price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, increased by .% year-on-year in March. Although it was less than expected, it still maintained its highest level since January for two consecutive months.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized its concern about the negative impact of a strong U.S. dollar on the economy, and has continued to release dovish signals recently, implying that it will suspend interest rate increases, which has also suppressed the U.S. dollar. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's monthly meeting released last week showed that policymakers discussed the possibility of a monthly interest rate hike. There were clear differences in views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on issues such as the outlook for U.S. inflation and the timing of the next interest rate hike. The chances are basically ruled out.
The decline in real interest rates and repeated suppression by the Federal Reserve have hindered the dollar's rise. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. dollar index has fallen by .% cumulatively, which is the worst performance in the same period since the beginning of the year. The single-month decline in April alone is as high as .%, which is the worst monthly performance since last month. The U.S. dollar index continues to be under pressure near monthly lows.
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of March, investors reduced their long bets on the U.S. dollar for the fifth consecutive week, and the net long position in the U.S. dollar has dropped to 100 million U.S. dollars.
A weak U.S. dollar helps the yen rise
Analysts believe that as concerns about slowing global economic growth rekindle and the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate hikes, the U.S. dollar's strong cycle may come to an end, at least in the short term. Not optimistic. Relative to the Japanese yen, on the one hand, the continued weakness of the US dollar provides support for the Japanese yen to maintain its strength. On the other hand, the fragility of the global economic recovery and the turmoil in the financial market have stimulated investors' demand for safe havens, which may in turn continue to push up the exchange rate of the Japanese yen as a safe haven currency.
The latest survey results released by Reuters show that foreign exchange strategists believe that the surge in the US dollar that began in the middle of the year is almost over. The US dollar may only rise slightly in the next year, and exchange rate expectations are also facing the risk of further downward revisions. Analysts at Pacific Investment Management Co. () believe that the U.S. dollar has limited upside this year. Although the monetary policies of global central banks will continue to diverge, the Fed's interest rate hike path is expected to be slow, and the degree of monetary policy differentiation among central banks is limited. The boost to the US dollar is also limited.
A BNP Paribas research report stated that against the backdrop of the euro and the yen being supported by current account surpluses, the decline in U.S. real interest rates and the increase in market volatility are adding to the pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Citi analysts pointed out in the latest report that the current dollar sell indicator is., which is the strongest sell signal in years. Fed officials are now not simply raising interest rates when U.S. economic data improves, but are paying more and more attention to the global financial environment. Unless the market truly considers that the Fed will raise interest rates next month, the weakness of the U.S. dollar will continue.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts believe that as long as global markets remain fragile, the Federal Reserve will not be eager to raise interest rates and the dollar is unlikely to rebound. While rising U.S. inflation may force the Fed to take action, it will take some time. A strong dollar needs to be supported by near-perfect fundamentals, namely strong U.S. economic data across the board and strong overseas and global markets.
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