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Introduction: Destocking the real estate market is one of China’s annual economic tasks and one of the hottest topics in the Chinese economy. Since the National Day holiday, major cities across the country have introduced purchase restriction policies in an attempt to cool down the hot property market. For a time, rumors that "the real estate market has limited upside" and "the bubble will burst" were rampant. So, is the property market purchase restriction policy effective? After the purchase restriction, will housing prices really fall as expected? Will housing prices in Beijing rise? Will second-tier cities become the hardest hit areas with high housing prices? Will the depreciation of the RMB drive housing prices down? In response to these questions, Phoenix Finance conducted an exclusive interview Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council
Destocking the real estate market is one of China’s annual economic tasks and one of the hottest topics in the Chinese economy. Since the National Day holiday, major cities across the country have introduced purchase restriction policies in an attempt to cool down the hot property market. For a time, rumors that "the real estate market has limited upside" and "the bubble will burst" were rampant.
So, is the property market purchase restriction policy effective? After the purchase restriction, will housing prices really fall as expected? Will housing prices in Beijing rise? Will second-tier cities become the hardest hit areas with high housing prices? Will the depreciation of the RMB drive housing prices down? In response to these questions, Phoenix Finance conducted an exclusive interview with Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council.
Purchase restriction measures are often a temporary solution
Our interview started with the recent property market purchase restriction policy. During the National Day period, more than 20 cities successively introduced purchase restriction policies in the property market, and the transaction volume of the property markets in various places dropped significantly. Is this regulation effective? After the purchase restriction, will housing prices really fall as expected? Liu Shijin said that first of all, we need to analyze why housing prices will rise this year. There are generally four reasons: rising urban demand, fiscal model, land system, and monetary policy. .
So, what are the current purchase restriction measures? Liu Shijin said frankly that many of the recently introduced purchase restriction measures are to limit demand and often treat the symptoms. This may work in the short term, but in the long term, people's need to "go to the city" will be unstoppable. "Increasing land supply, reforming land and fiscal models, and promoting real estate tax can cure the root cause in the long run." Of course, there is also our monetary policy. Don’t have too much money. If there is too much money, it will promote bubbles. &
Will Beijing’s housing prices rise?
In the history of real estate regulation in recent years, Beijing’s purchase restrictions had a significant effect at the beginning, with transaction volume declining. However, since then, housing prices have steadily rebounded and even exceeded the housing prices before regulation. Will Beijing's housing prices continue to rise? Liu Shijin pointed out that demand is rising steadily, and the key question is whether supply can keep up. This is actually also a problem of supply-side reform.
&For example, the reform of our land finance model can make some progress, the real estate tax can be introduced, the government's supply policy can be adjusted, and more land can be supplied, at least to release an expectation. "In addition, if our monetary policy can be more prudent and stop issuing too much currency that exceeds the actual needs of economic development, housing prices can be stabilized and even fall back to a certain extent." At the same time, Liu Shijin also pointed out that if these reforms are not carried out unfavorably and the dislocation of resources caused by the rise in housing prices, this may be a question mark.
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