Year1
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The preliminary voting results of the Italian referendum show that the opposition leads by as many as 10 points in the Italian constitutional referendum. Prime Minister Renzi admitted failure, said he took full responsibility for it and would resign. Affected by this, gold and silver rose. But compared with the impact of Brexit, the increase in gold and silver is just a drop in the bucket. So why is the rise in gold and silver so calm even though Brexit is successful and Italy is successful?
The dust has settled after Italy successfully left the EU. Why are gold and silver so calm? First of all, the market generally believes that the Italian referendum is the biggest risk point in European politics this year, and may be more lethal than the British Brexit referendum. If Italy decides to leave the euro zone in a referendum, it will trigger a complete collapse of the euro zone in a short period of time, possibly triggering the worst economic impact in history and dealing a heavy blow to the euro. However, the uncertainty about Italy's constitutional referendum is quite high, and investors are worried that if pro-European Prime Minister Renzi fails to win the constitutional referendum on May 1, as polls show, Italy's political situation may fall into uncertainty.
Italy will hold a constitutional referendum on Sunday, the core content of which is to reform the existing bicameral parliamentary system. The final result will be announced around the morning of Sunday, Beijing time. At first, investors worried that if the referendum failed, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi might fulfill his promise to resign, thus escalating the referendum into a "black swan event." Once Italy's political situation falls into chaos, the country's economy, especially the banking industry, will be affected. If populist forces come to power in the future, another Brexit referendum may be triggered. "Macroeconomic risks and geopolitical risks have set the stage for gold and silver to perform well this year," the Dublin-based director said. "As market conditions remain unstable, these metals will continue to outperform." & Therefore, if Italy succeeds in Brexit this time, gold and silver are expected to see a small rise. But the increase won't be too big.
Black swan events occur frequently. Beware of small rises in gold and silver. Beware of roller coaster market
As we all know, after Brexit, the prices of gold and silver continued to rise by more than %, outperforming the global stock market, bond market and foreign exchange market. Includes assets that are often considered safe havens. Since January, gold and silver prices have remained high and under pressure. Thanks to the impact of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates and Britain's successful Brexit, silver prices have gained upward momentum here. Unfortunately, the rally did not last long, and after gold and silver broke through highs, they fell back. The whole story is the result of the black swan event triggered by Trump's election in the US election and the continued increase in expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the next month.
So when Italy successfully left the European Union, gold and silver were really overwhelmed by the black swan event. So when the news of Italy's successful Brexit came out, the basic positive factors were almost digested. In addition, the Federal Reserve A monthly interest rate hike is almost a foregone conclusion. Market investors are afraid that gold and silver will go out of the market again, so the buying power weakens and the selling orders sell at high levels. As a result, the gold and silver rally can only rise slightly.
Gold and silver will not be able to escape the pressure as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision hits hard
As the dust of the Italian referendum is about to settle today, gold and silver will begin to consolidate sharply until the meeting begins next Wednesday. Gold and silver will await the Federal Reserve meeting from Tuesday to Wednesday. One of the most important events this week is New York Fed President Dudley's speech on the macroeconomic outlook. The speech will be held in New York on Monday, followed by remarks by regional Fed Presidents Evans and Bullard. These three speeches occurred before the Federal Reserve's "blackout period." If Federal Reserve officials continue to issue hawkish remarks, gold and silver will be under pressure to fall before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Until the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is released, gold and silver will be wary of roller coaster prices.
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