Year1
- 天然气：
- 50t
- 沥青：
- 150t
- 铜：
- 5t
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' , B, ' , ' , ' ' ' The current unemployment rate in the United States is at a record low, and inflation is also moving further. The Fed's inflation target is close. Without considering Trump's fiscal stimulus plan, Fed officials are already very optimistic about the economy and inflation, as evidenced by their monthly interest rate hikes. At last month’s meeting, the dot-plot even predicted that interest rates would be raised two to three times this year, and officials were more confident in their view of the economy.
' , B, ' , ' , ' ' ' However, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen warned at a hearing on May that new fiscal stimulus measures may have significant inflationary effects, and the Fed has to be taken into consideration. From this point of view, how Trump implements these new policies will significantly affect the Federal Reserve’s decisions and expectations.
' , B, ' , ' , ' ' ' In this scenario, if Trump fulfills his stimulus promises, a stronger dollar will suppress exports and inflation, which will help prevent the economy from overheating. However, if Trump breaks his promise, or if these measures take far longer than expected to have an impact on economic activity, the dollar's continued appreciation will cause more problems for the Fed.
' , B, ' , ' , ' ' ' As for whether Trump can fulfill his promise, the key depends on Congress, which is in charge of financial power. Although Republicans control both houses of Congress, some members are still reluctant to support measures that would increase the U.S. deficit.
' , B, ' , ' , ' ' ' A study by New York Fed economists Mary Amity and Taylor Smith shows that if the dollar appreciates within a quarter and continues to strengthen, the U.S. economy is likely to decline over the next year. Ferici (r), senior macro strategist at State Street Group in Boston, pointed out that the current U.S. economy is already at a historically weak level, although it is not as bad as in 2016. Regardless of whether it is going up or down, any changes in the economy will undoubtedly increase the Fed's worries.
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