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The crude oil market will usher in a much-watched conference on Wednesday. Investors are hopeful that oil producers will be able to reach a deal in Vienna, but indications so far suggest they may have to prepare for the meeting to end in disappointment. Analysts pointed out that oil prices may fluctuate significantly due to the high level of uncertainty about the outcome of Wednesday's meeting.
According to the schedule published on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) website, the organization will postpone the start of its official meeting on Wednesday (July 2) by one hour to Wednesday: Beijing time. A source said that before the formal meeting, ministers from member countries will hold an informal meeting on Wednesday, Beijing time.
A well-known overseas financial website wrote an article saying that member states may leave Vienna with "empty hands", which may bring new "shock waves" to the energy market.
According to the chart below provided by Goldman Sachs, the crude oil market currently believes that there is only a % chance that member states will reach an agreement on a production freeze or reduction at Wednesday's summit.
The report pointed out that if an agreement is not reached, the initial sell-off will worsen and may fall below US$/barrel. Goldman Sachs believes oil price swings on Wednesday are likely to hit $1 a barrel, five times higher than on other days.
Analysts from some institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Macquarie, said that if an agreement is not reached, oil prices will undergo a sharp correction and may fall as low as US$/barrel.
Since reaching a preliminary agreement at the end of the month to set the output target at 10,000 barrels/day, oil prices have been on a "roller coaster" in recent months. Oil prices have fallen by half since mid-year.
The monthly daily crude oil output is approximately 10,000 barrels. If the target is to be achieved, it means that total output has to be reduced. However, there is still no agreement among member countries on how much each country should cut production, and plans to involve non-oil-producing Russia in reducing production have so far been unsuccessful.
At present, there are still serious internal differences. Iran and Iraq, for example, have been reluctant to reduce output, while Libya and Nigeria have both tried to increase output after civil unrest led to the destruction of crude-related facilities.
Iranian Oil Minister Zanganeh ( ) said that he is not prepared to reduce production: "Our production will be maintained at the level decided by Algeria." &
Iraq strives to increase production, saying it needs more funds to fight the Islamic State (IS). The combined output of Iran and Iran exceeds 10,000 barrels per day, slightly lower than Saudi Arabia's 10,000 barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia failed to attend Monday’s technical meeting with non-oil-producing countries, including Russia, which also fueled market expectations for the outcome of the meeting.
A meeting of experts held in Vienna on Monday failed to bridge the differences over the production reduction mechanism between Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader, and the organization's second and third largest oil producers, sources said.
Sources pointed out that tensions intensified on Tuesday, and Iran sent a letter stating that it hoped that Saudi Arabia would cut production by up to 10,000 barrels per day, which is higher than the scale of Saudi Arabia's willingness to reduce production. The source saw the Iranian letter.
As internal tensions heat up, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Falih said that because global demand will recover next year, oil-producing countries do not necessarily need to reduce production.
He has said before that Saudi Arabia is eager to reach a deal. Industry insiders believe that Saudi Arabia’s attitude makes it more likely that the Vienna Conference will end in vain.
UAE Oil Minister Mazrouei ( ) said on Tuesday that the oil market will balance itself within six months, but the output agreement will help speed up the process. The UAE is Saudi Arabia's main ally.
Brent crude oil fell sharply on Tuesday by $.USD, or .%, to settle at $.USD per barrel. U.S. crude oil fell by $.USD, or.%, to settle at $.USD per barrel. Brent oil posted its biggest one-day percentage drop since January.
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