Tianjin Fidelity Commodity Trading Center

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Tianjin Fidelity Bulk Business Analysis Guidance

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Beijing time, the market has received crude oil inventory data. Judging from the data released in the morning, it is negative for crude oil, but crude oil prices are in the process of falling. It did not continue, but rebounded slightly, indicating that crude oil prices have stabilized. Currently, the market predicts that crude oil inventories are expected to decrease by 10,000 barrels. The previous value was a decrease of .1 million barrels. The actual value is, how will crude oil prices go? Teacher Tang Yiguan gives advance predictions here. If the point quotations of the platform are different, investors can refer to them for comparison.
Forecast before the release of monthly data
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If the actual value of the data decreases by less than 10,000 barrels, that is, when the actual value is greater than the previous value and expected
It is negative for crude oil, but basically It is also consistent with the morning data. If yesterday's low position falls below, you can take advantage of the trend and go short. Otherwise, there will still be a rebound and rise after stabilization. Once the low is unable to break upward, adopt a long view and do not rebound and go short
If the data is true The decrease in value is more than 10,000 barrels, that is, the actual decrease is less than expected
It is bullish for crude oil. After the supply and demand side has been suppressing crude oil for some time, there has been a significant reduction in inventory, which has a greater boosting effect on crude oil. Data After it comes out, Tang Yiguan believes that investors can chase the rise of crude oil, and the top focus is mainly on the pressure on the US dollar. Once the position is broken, they can continue to be long on crude oil, basically making a profit from the current price (which can be long).
If the actual value of the data is lower than expected and the previous value,
it will be significantly bullish for crude oil prices. In the current market, it is generally believed that short sellers will continue to pursue the victory and crude oil prices will complete a strong correction. Crude oil prices will be directly bought to buy long prices. For orders, the profit is the profit of points.
From a technical point of view, the daily price has fallen for four consecutive days, and the moving average is running above the price. The first thing to suppress is to look at the moving average, but the space is large and there is no strong reference sub-chart indicator, which still shows the short position. The trend and indicators are still running in the oversold zone, and there is demand for a rebound, but no long signal is given. In the four hours, the moving average has formed a clear suppression, and the price running below the moving average has become a focus of attention in the short term, while above it has been an obvious pressure level since the day of the month, which is the focus of attention during the day. Looking at the sub-picture, the indicators are short and heavy, the golden cross is rising but the rebound is weak.