Year1
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Today's international spot gold opened near US$/oz, and then maintained a narrow range of fluctuations. It rose slightly to around US$/oz in the early part of the European market, which was a key point for longs and shorts. After being pressured here, it fell back to US$/oz. It is hovering nearby, and the overall fluctuation is still not large. Economic data and fundamental events were sparse on Monday, and the market's focus has turned to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech on Friday. Before Yellen's speech, the market was cautious and the U.S. dollar index was trading volatilely. In terms of crude oil, the support for oil prices from the previous production freeze has gradually weakened, and concerns about oversupply have resurfaced. China's fuel exports have surged, Iraq and Nigeria have continued to increase production, and the number of U.S. crude oil drilling platforms has continued to increase, coupled with the return of bulls. Under the combined influence of these factors, oil prices ended their previous consecutive days of rising prices and finally closed sharply down by %. This week’s focus will be on Friday’s speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.
The U.S. economy has hints of recession, and the Federal Reserve may expand
A Federal Reserve staff working paper titled "Measuring the Ability to Respond to Future Economic Recessions" written by the Federal Reserve's deputy secretary for research and statistics was released over the weekend. The document concluded that the model Simulations under a severe recession scenario suggest that large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance on the future path of the federal funds rate should provide enough additional accommodation to fully compensate for the more limited ability to lower short-term interest rates in most cases. So far so good, Citi’s head of FX strategy observed, but there are some glaring issues with the document’s assumptions. He pointed out that the basic framework of the document adopts the standard U.S. economic model used by the Federal Reserve, subjecting it to a negative shock large enough to increase the unemployment rate by a percentage point (large enough but not unprecedented in the past year), and uses the Federal Reserve policy rate, quantitative Accommodative and forward guidance tools to see if they are enough to get the economy back on track. Negative interest rates and helicopter money were not used. Both simulations assume that the economy is in equilibrium, the inflation rate is %, * (the natural interest rate) is %, and the equilibrium nominal federal funds rate is %. , the economy is in equilibrium, the inflation rate is %, * (the natural interest rate) is zero (long-term economic stagnation), and the equilibrium nominal federal funds rate is %. He compares three policy approaches. The first assumes that the federal funds rate enters negative interest rates, but the structure of economic relations does not collapse. The second assumes the federal funds rate falls to zero and keeps it near zero long enough for the unemployment rate to return to the bottom line. The third scenario cuts the federal funds rate to zero and adds an additional trillion dollars in guidance. In other words, the Fed has long considered scenarios in which a shock to the U.S. economy would result in an additional trillion dollars in the U.S., or in a worst-case scenario, an additional trillion dollars, effectively doubling the size of the Fed's current balance sheet.
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