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Earlier this month, San Francisco Fed President Williams proposed considering raising the inflation target to adapt to the new situation of lower interest rates. Williams proposed that the Fed's inflation target may be raised to above %, or that the inflation target may be replaced with a new target based on prices or economic growth. This proposal to reconsider the inflation targeting system may become one of the topics discussed at this meeting.
Negative interest rates
Central bankers around the world have divided views on the benefits of negative interest rate policies. After last year's Jackson Hole meeting, the Bank of Japan cut interest rates into negative territory, following the lead of some European economies that face the risk of stagnating and their currencies appreciating. But Fed officials are skeptical of negative rates, and influential Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has said he is not keen on what was once seen as too aggressive a policy. Some critics say early signs from European economies with negative interest rates show an increase in deposits by individuals and businesses without an increase in spending. European banks also say low interest rates are taking a heavy toll on their profitability. The meeting will provide an opportunity for central bank governors to discuss their countries' experiences.
Natural interest rate
So far, the ultra-loose monetary policy implemented for several years has failed to promote a significant increase in inflation and economic growth, causing economists to question some of their long-standing views on interest rates. They are paying close attention to the abstract rate of interest known as the natural rate. The natural interest rate is a theoretical base interest rate that allows the economy to achieve full employment and maintain a stable inflation rate. Currently, the natural rate is thought to be hovering at historically low levels. This rate may be an issue at Jackson Hole, as a low natural rate means a shallow path for future interest rate increases.
Left-Leaning Groups
Senior Fed officials did an unusual thing on the eve of the meeting by meeting with activists from a left-leaning group called the Fed. The regional Fed presidents of New York, Kansas, Dallas, Minneapolis, Cleveland, Boston, and San Francisco, as well as Fed Governor Brainard, held a public discussion with leaders on Thursday afternoon on issues such as interest rates and the governance of the Federal Reserve. Opposed to raising interest rates and called on the Federal Reserve to strengthen leadership diversity.
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