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& The U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate released on Friday were both lower than expected. At the same time, given that the next policy meeting of the Federal Reserve is only one week away from the presidential election, Schiesenrath, known as the "Fed News Agency", believes that it is impossible to raise interest rates every month.
Beijing time on Friday (July 1), the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the U.S. monthly non-farm employment population recorded a seasonally adjusted . Both are .%. After the data was released, Hysenrath, a famous reporter from the Wall Street Journal and known as the "Federal Reserve News Service", wrote an article expressing his views on non-agriculture. The following is the full text:
The monthly non-farm payrolls report was weaker than expected, leading the Federal Reserve to not raise short-term interest rates at its policy meeting this month, just one week before the presidential election. This also adds a series of uncertainties to its mid-month actions.
According to the non-farm report, the unemployment rate rose slightly to %&& is basically in line with Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen’s outlook for the labor market after the monthly policy meeting.
People are returning to the labor market looking for work. Many found it, but not all. The Labor Department's household survey showed that the number of monthly employed people increased steadily by 10,000 people month-on-month, but at the same time the number of unemployed people also increased by 10,000 people. (An independent survey of business organizations showed that 10,000 new jobs were created last month.)
The rise in the number of unemployed people comes from the increase in the number of people looking for work, which also exerts reverse pressure on the unemployment rate. . The unemployment rate has increased slightly compared to the monthly level of .%, and has stabilized this year and is no longer declining.
Yellen sees the return of people looking for jobs as a positive sign. The employment participation rate, which had been declining as the frustrated and aging population stopped looking for work, has begun to reverse. The monthly employment participation rate increased by .% to .% year-on-year, which is an optimistic signal and means that jobs are once again becoming attractive to potential workers.
The increase in the labor pool means that the job market has not yet overheated. This strengthens Yellen's intention to slowly raise interest rates. At the press conference after the October policy meeting, she said:
Compared with previously expected, the economy still has room for development. this is a good news. &r
The next policy meeting of the Federal Reserve will be held on March 1, which is the presidential election. Given that the non-farm payrolls report confirms that the economy "still has room for development," it is almost certain that interest rates will be raised at the next meeting. May is still the most likely time for the Fed to raise interest rates, but it is not a sure thing. If unemployment continues to rise, Fed officials may delay raising interest rates until next year.
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds benchmark interest rate to ..% last month and has kept interest rates unchanged. There are still two non-farm payrolls reports waiting for the Fed before making a decision at the mid-month meeting, so it has ample time to think about the decision.
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