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bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H' , , , >For oil market participants, the past two years have been extremely difficult. After all, most traders never imagined that oil prices would fall from USD/barrel to USD/barrel. After the plunge, many traders expected a strong rebound in oil prices as U.S. shale oil companies went bankrupt, but it was clear that this did not happen. Now, as the OPEC production reduction agreement is put on the agenda, non-OPEC oil-producing country Russia is also expected to participate in the production reduction, and oil market participants once again predict that oil prices will exceed the US dollar per barrel.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >But in fact, the factors affecting the oil market have changed. Even though the global economic growth rate, interest rates, exchange rates, global population growth rate, geopolitics and climatic conditions will all have an impact, in addition, changes in the global financial market may cause oil prices to deviate from these fundamentals, speculators' Trading sentiment can even lead to huge instantaneous fluctuations in oil prices.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >Moreover, the famous foreign financial blog Zero Hedge Zrhd cited an article by global actuary r, saying that the global energy market has undergone earth-shaking changes, and the future of the oil market Not so optimistic. The crude oil market has fallen into a dire scenario and there is no reasonable price that can satisfy both supply and demand. Either the oil price is too high, which affects the market's demand for crude oil, or the oil price is too low, making it unaffordable for producers. Both situations are not conducive to the sustainable development of the global economy. In general, the equilibrium price between supply and demand has disappeared, and the market and crude oil producers have entered a period of confusion regarding the standards for oil prices.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >The real price demanded by crude oil producers today is actually far beyond what the market can bear. Take Saudi Arabia, which is extremely dependent on crude oil revenue, as an example: outsiders may think that its oil production cost is US dollars per barrel, but if you consider taxes, benefits needed to maintain social order, funds needed to import supplies, and all other things that support the country's economy Adding up the costs, the actual oil price level required by Saudi Arabia is between US$/barrel to US$/barrel, and even they cannot actually afford the oil price level of US$/barrel. However, although such high oil prices meet the needs of oil-producing countries, global inflation levels will also rise, and global demand for crude oil will also shrink, thus hindering the development of the global economy.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >In addition, when the Hubert Curve is in the rising stage, everyone who benefits from crude oil trading has considerable income and can meet their daily needs. Producers can drill new wells and operate as normal. However, now that the oil market is close to Hubbard's peak, the pressure on OPEC's remaining production capacity has basically been released and has shrunk to annual levels. There is limited room for continued release in a low oil price environment. Furthermore, low oil prices have hit the strong momentum of North American shale mining, new production capacity has shrunk significantly, and output has entered a downward channel. In addition, low oil prices have also inhibited high-cost oil exploration such as offshore oil and gas.
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