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The market seemed to finally react to the shock of Brent crude oil futures for delivery in the past month on Thursday. (Month) Morning: Finally broke through the dollar ceiling, rising .% to .USD/barrel, the highest intraday level since March last year. U.S. oil also subsequently broke through. However, oil prices subsequently fell back below the dollar.
When supply disruptions in Canada, Nigeria and Libya were completely speculated and supply recovery was in sight, the two inventory indicators were better than expected and became a new driving force for oil prices. And at a time when supply is about to be restored, this momentum is quite strong.
What's more, long-term hidden dangers on the supply side have also added a bright spot to oil prices. Data from Cambridge Energy Consulting shows that the world's newly discovered crude oil reserves and oil and gas equivalents have reached their lowest values in decades, except for North America. This is the first time since the beginning of the oil industry that mankind's newly discovered conventional crude oil reserves have plummeted in consecutive years.
In addition, it is estimated that idle production capacity this year will drop to 10,000 barrels per day, the lowest level in this year. The country's idle production capacity mainly relies on Saudi Arabia, and the country's production capacity that can come online soon is only - 10,000 barrels, unable to make up for major crude oil supply interruptions. Iraq has also been warned by oil companies that if the country's government insists on significantly reducing expenditures this year, oil production increase projects will be delayed.
But Saudi Arabia came out to disrupt the situation again. Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser said on Thursday he plans to increase output from his oil fields to 10,000 barrels per day in the next two weeks from the current 10,000 barrels per day. However, due to the lack of transparency from the Saudi government, it is unclear what the specific increase in production will be.
In addition, the drop in oil prices is believed to be partly due to surging gasoline inventories and traders locking in profits before the Memorial Day long weekend. However, it is precisely because of this long weekend that some data have been squeezed into the concentrated release meeting next Thursday. U.S. crude oil inventory data, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, D data and the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision will all come out on this day. Therefore, the oil market will be better on this day. The mid-term exams are coming up and the pressure is quite high.
As of March 1, Beijing time: crude oil was quoted at US$1.00 per barrel, down .%, and Brent crude oil was quoted at US$1.00 per barrel, down by .%.
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