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UBS analysts said everything will still depend on what happens in Jackson Hole, and it will be difficult for the market to make a decision until then. Based on pricing, it seems generally expected that interest rates will be raised in March, so Yellen's speech would need to be very hawkish to advance market expectations from March to March. Technical short selling also put pressure on gold prices. The two consecutive weeks of price consolidation were broken downward. In one minute at Beijing time, more than 10,000 U.S. monthly gold futures contracts changed hands, causing the price to plummet in dollar terms and fall below the daily moving average. Analysts at Canada's Monterey Bank said that the current speculative net long positions in the futures market are still very high. Once market sentiment changes, these positions will be opened. As expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes increase, the risk of metal prices falling in the short term is greater. The risk of overshooting the upside is that new structural catalysts are needed for precious metals to rise further. Analysts at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation pointed out that although the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates once this month, continued risk aversion will continue to support gold's safe-haven demand. If it only raises interest rates once this year, it will maintain its end-of-year gold price forecast at US$/ounce. If it does not raise interest rates, the gold price will rise to US$/ounce. Although the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are improving, investors are expected to continue to be long gold due to the uncertainty of Brexit and the U.S. election in March.
Crude oil inventories increased sharply, and crude oil prices turned lower after profit-taking from highs
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, with U.S. crude oil futures closing about % lower after inventory data released by the United States showed that crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased significantly last week, causing Concerns about oversupply have reignited. The United States is the world's largest crude oil consumer. U.S. crude oil ended down $., or .%, at $.$ per barrel. Brent crude ended down $.$, or .%, at $.$ per barrel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 10,000 barrels last week, while analysts expected a decrease of 10,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased to the highest level for the same period this year, and distillate inventories reached the highest level for the same period this year, both of which lowered oil prices. Well-known financial blog Zero Hedge Analysis said that after this morning's crude oil inventory data recorded a monthly high, although the increase in crude oil inventories was smaller, it also recorded a new monthly high. Cushing crude oil, distilled fuel and gasoline inventories were also higher than expected. Oil prices sold off after the data was released. Citi Futures and energy analysts said that although the increase in crude oil inventories in the report was smaller than the previous report, it was still a bearish signal compared to market expectations and historical averages. Oil traders say it's surprising that inventories should be declining at this time of year, but instead we're seeing increases in every item. The market's prediction was wrong again. If it goes as expected, market supply and demand should begin to return to balance in the third quarter.
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