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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to reduce crude oil production by 10,000 barrels per day at the Vienna meeting on October 1. This is the first time in years that the organization has decided to cut production. According to the understanding reached, the crude oil production of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries will be reduced by 10,000 barrels per day. Buoyed by this news, international oil prices have risen sharply in recent trading days.
In today's trading, the prices of crude oil futures for front-month delivery in New York and London rose by .% and % respectively. The price of crude oil futures for delivery next day in New York is above the US dollar per barrel mark, and the price of Brent crude oil futures for delivery next month in London is above the US dollar per barrel. The two prices soared by % and % respectively throughout the week, each recording the largest weekly increase since the beginning of the year and the beginning of the year.
Following the rise in oil prices, U.S. energy stocks have also performed well in recent trading. According to data from Bloomberg, the three major sub-stock indexes of S&P Oil and Gas Drilling, Oil and Gas Extraction and Production, and Oil and Gas Equipment Services led all sectors in gains in the trading days as of today. Their gains ranged from .% to .%.
Relatively speaking, the S&P Leisure Goods and Wine Index performed weakly, with both falling around % for the whole week. The S&P index fell about % for the week.
On Monday (July 2), international crude oil prices continued to rise since the European Union reached an agreement to reduce production. It is said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold a meeting with non-states in Vienna this Saturday (July 2). to finalize a global crude oil production limit agreement.
The two sources had earlier said the meeting would be held in the Russian capital, Moscow, but later said plans had changed.
Last Wednesday (July), the first production reduction agreement was reached in 2020, agreeing to reduce production by about 10,000 barrels per day starting from March 2019, thereby reducing global excess supply and boosting oil prices. The agreement also includes coordinated action with non-member Russia, the first of its kind this year.
At the same time, it is hoped that non-countries will contribute to reducing production by 10,000 barrels per day. Russia has said it will cut production by about 10,000 barrels per day.
Data show that Russia’s monthly oil production hit a new high since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia plans to use monthly production figures as the benchmark for its production cuts, which puts pressure on oil prices.
According to the current situation, the production reduction agreement implemented next year is only based on the oil production level at the end of the year. The oversupply situation in the oil market may continue, which will be a reason that will continue to affect the oil market next year. Oversupply in the oil market has caused oil prices to fall by half since the beginning of the year.
On March 1, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) finally reached an agreement to reduce production. On the same day, international oil prices rose, driven by the news of production restrictions. The US dollar reached . US dollars, the largest single-day increase this year.
At the beginning of the month, OPEC initially reached an agreement to limit production at an informal meeting in Algiers. In the next half month, the cumulative increase in oil prices increased the US dollar. Compared with the beginning of the month, the formal production reduction agreement reached on March 1 has a greater driving effect on oil prices.
The driving effect of production restriction news on oil prices has not ended. On March 1, OPEC will discuss production cuts again with non-OPEC countries. At present, many non-OPEC countries have agreed to follow OPEC in reducing production. Therefore, around March 1, international oil prices may rise again due to the production cuts of non-OPEC countries.
What needs to be paid more attention to is that the current round of production reduction agreement implemented in March can only last for a few months. After that, whether production constraints need to be maintained will be discussed again in March next year. It can be seen that the impact of the news of production restrictions on oil prices will continue next year.
Of course, the driving effect of news and events on oil prices is only external factors. The more important internal factor is the scale and desire of speculative funds. External factors are the conditions for change, while internal factors are the basis for change. When speculative funds shrink or behavior is suppressed, even good news will not be able to effectively drive oil prices. News of production restrictions after this month have repeatedly pushed up oil prices. An important reason is that speculative funds that were once withdrawn have returned.
In March this year, some large Wall Street banks proposed to the Federal Reserve that they could not withdraw from their proprietary business before the end of this year due to poor capital liquidity as required by the "Volcker Rule". In the following months, speculative funds in the oil futures market not only did not decrease, but began to increase their positions on a large scale. The funds that had been gradually withdrawn in the second half of the year returned to their original scale. Speculative funds are an important variable in future oil price trends. This is also a basic basis for the "good news" presented in the market to push up oil prices.
In the context of "speculative funds are back," the news of oil-producing countries' production restrictions has become a good subject for speculative funds. With the operation of larger-scale speculative funds in the international oil market, the oil price speculative bubble may inflate again.
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